Deasons XI

Captain expected points, next gameweek

Squad next five gameweeks · colours are FPL fixture difficulty

Transfers ranked by net gain over five gameweeks, after any hit

• João Pedro→Thiagominutes +18% · goals +0.14/90 · assists -0.18/90£+0.1m+7.84
• João Pedro→Gonzalominutes +14% · assists -0.10/90 · defcon -1.67/90£-1.7m+6.79
• João Pedro→Evanilson£-1.7m+6.03
• João Pedro→Wissaminutes +18% · goals +0.03/90 · assists -0.02/90£-1.5m+5.63
• João Pedro→Calvert-Lewin£-1.7m+5.48
• João Pedro→Havertz£-0.1m+5.34
• White→Tarkowskiminutes +30% · goals -0.02/90 · assists -0.12/90£+0.6m+5.21
• N.Williams→Hill£+0.5m+4.97
• N.Williams→Gvardiol£+0.7m+4.89
• White→Hill£+0.0m+4.86

Wildcard the optimal 15 for your real budget, and whether it beats what you have

Your current squad scores 266.6 over five gameweeks on the same model. The optimal wildcard scores 285.2 — a gap of +18.6. That is roughly what a well-timed wildcard is worth; whether it beats saving the chip for a double gameweek is a separate question this board does not yet answer.

Budget £100.5m (selling prices + bank) · optimal squad costs £100.5m · bench 82.8. Totals are the best XI each week plus the bench at its measured auto-sub rate (a starter blanks in 61% of weeks). Players marked own are already in your squad.

Bench

From your current squad, the optimum would let go of

This is a point-estimate optimum. Two players a point apart over five gameweeks are indistinguishable given model error, so read the large margins and ignore the small ones. Cheap defenders here score largely through defensive contributions, the component with one season of evidence behind it.

Insights what moved since you last looked — availability, prices, and the market's own repricing of this gameweek

Lineup rule shadow mode — who the returning-starter / injury-promotion rule would move, model → rule. Shown and scored, not yet in expected points

"N wk out masked": weeks he was injured or suspended at the deadline are not evidence of being dropped. "last season S/38": his own start rate stands in for the positional prior. "unfilled slot" / "slot competition": per club and position the probabilities are made to sum to the number who started the last match; a returner takes his slot from the least established incumbent. GW4 replay: Brier 0.114 → 0.105 on 373 players. It goes into expected points only once a scored gameweek confirms it.

Availability changes last 72h, non-bulk, owned by at least 0.5% or in your squad

Prices tonight's likely movers from the tracker fields, and what actually moved

Progress is FPL's own price-change tracker field: past +100% a rise is due at the next update, past -100% a fall. It is a crowd-transfer signal, not a lineup one.

Fixture moves the sharp book's own price now vs 24h ago — same book, same outcome, so the vig cancels

"2+ goals" is the sharp book's line on that team's OWN goals - the nearest thing to a team expected-goals price, and the one that drops when a striker is ruled out. A win price drifting while the goals lines hold is the market losing faith in that side. Win-to-nil is the nearest thing to a clean-sheet price. Moves under 2pp are ordinary drift and are shown in grey.

Scorer price moves cross-book median anytime-scorer probability now vs 24h ago, at least 3pp

No player's scorer price moved by that much.

Market the market's own lineup and goal forecast — colours are the same FPL difficulty scale, applied to clean-sheet odds

Compare any two players, side by side

Best available not owned · by expected points next gameweek